“A court ruling is anticipated this Wednesday in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which may considerably threaten the already precarious stability of this Balkan nation,” writes journalist Michael Martens in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. He details that the key defendant, Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, faces charges for defying the decisions made by the international community’s high representative, Christian Schmidt, who possesses the power to enact laws by decree or annul those established by BiH’s parliaments.

The journalist also recalls that in July 2023, Schmidt, a former German Minister of Agriculture, implemented punitive measures for noncompliance with the High Representative’s decree, introducing a maximum prison sentence of up to five years. “This action was a response to Dodik’s systematic attempts to undermine the state of BiH, of which the RS is legally considered a part. In 2023, Dodik legislated in the RS that the decisions and rulings of the BiH Constitutional Court would no longer be recognized in that entity. Under Schmidt’s decree, which immediately became law, any politician or civil servant found guilty of ignoring the High Representative’s directives would be barred from holding budget-funded positions.”

The key question posed is who will apprehend the RS president if he is convicted,” the German publication notes. “Reports from Sarajevo suggest that the ‘State Investigation and Protection Agency’ (SIPA) should take action. However, the director of SIPA, Darko Ćulum, is a Bosnian Serb and reportedly a loyal collaborator of Dodik in Banja Luka. Ćulum previously led the RS police before transitioning to the state agency in Sarajevo. Would SIPA, under Ćulum’s leadership, actually attempt to arrest Dodik, particularly if they face opposition from the RS police?” the author queries.

The German journalist recalls similar issues from past conflicts between Dodik and Schmidt’s predecessor, Valentin Inzko, during 2009 and 2010. He quotes Dodik: “‘Bosnia is a monstrous state, an imaginary country that the international community sustains by force,’ Dodik derided at that time, dismissing threats of his removal and asserting that the international community had lost its real power in BiH: ‘What do they think they can do? Send in tanks and prevent me from entering government buildings?'”

“Emperors Without Suits”

In this context, Dodik highlights what the article describes as a “sensitive issue” — that both the High Representative and the European Union in BiH are “emperors without suits,” with their “soft power” being “softer than actually powerful.” This becomes even more relevant now that Donald Trump has returned to the White House, according to the author. “Dodik likely anticipates greater understanding from the new administration in Washington. His connections are favorable,” the author observes, mentioning that former New York mayor and Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani visited Banja Luka this past Monday.

The Frankfurt newspaper also addresses Dodik’s warning that if he is found guilty, he intends to organize a referendum on forming a confederation between the RS and Serbia — noting that although Dodik has previously declared this intent, he has never followed through with decisive action.

“Previously, if faced with such a scenario, he would encounter determined resistance not only from the EU but also from the US. Today, however, that is uncertain. The new American approach may destabilize relations in the Balkans, especially if a referendum on a confederation with Serbia provokes a significant reaction from Sarajevo,” the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung concludes. “Nonetheless, the expected escalation on Wednesday may not transpire, as Dodik could appeal if found guilty. This would merely delay the conflict, leaving the outcome unclear.”

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