Balkans expert Danijel Server has stated that any peace agreement for Ukraine, which jeopardizes its sovereignty and territorial integrity, could fuel secessionist and irredentist sentiments in the Balkans.

“Any such agreement regarding Ukraine that undermines Kiev’s sovereignty would invigorate secessionist and irredentist groups in the Balkans. Countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo would find themselves at risk, while North Macedonia may not easily accept Bulgarian demands without solid guarantees,” Server explained to MIA.

Having previously served as a mediator in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Dayton Peace Agreement, Server noted that Russia’s current negotiating position regarding Ukraine is “favorable and unlikely to replicate the failure of the Minsk-2 scenario” from 2015.

“While Russia could attempt to utilize these discussions to prolong a ceasefire agreement, I have my doubts in this instance. The Americans appear to be proposing a deal allowing Russia to at least maintain control over the areas it occupies in Ukraine. Such an agreement would enable Moscow to buy time for rearming and reorganizing its military,” said Server, who is also in charge of the conflict management program at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.

Additionally, Server posits that the integration of North Macedonia into the European Union (EU) would only proceed once the guarantees requested by Prime Minister Kristijan Mickovski, leader of VMRO-DPMNE, are met, asserting that Bulgaria’s insistence on constitutional amendments would likely be the final demand from Sofia.

“In my view, Macedonia is prepared to accept Bulgaria’s request to include Bulgarians in its Constitution, provided that this condition is the last one from Sofia. I am uncertain whether the Bulgarians will consent to this,” Server emphasized.

Regarding the EU’s absence during the initial negotiations between Washington and Moscow over the resolution of the Ukraine war, which took place in Riyadh, and the intentions of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to establish an integrated European military force independent of NATO, Server underscored the necessity for Europe to have leaders capable of competing with US President Donald Trump.

“Europe needs politicians who are prepared to challenge Washington on more substantial issues than just the creation of militaries independent of NATO. They require leaders who will vigorously defend Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity,” stated the American Balkans expert.

He further believes that the US will maintain its stance and refrain from deploying its forces to Ukraine, with Europe likely being the first to send peacekeeping troops depending on any agreements reached.

“I support the idea of sending troops to Ukraine, but only if that arrangement ensures the protection of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. Otherwise, there is a risk of being caught in the wrong place at the wrong time if Moscow decides to renew the conflict,” Server told North Macedonia’s state news agency.

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