The initial weeks of Donald Trump’s second term have reaffirmed the New York Times headline: “The Master Dealmaker is Back.” In terms of foreign policy, it’s evident that Trump’s “preferred deals” will continue to drive his agenda. For instance, ongoing American military aid to Ukraine could depend on access to critical raw materials like rare earth metals and lithium for the U.S. Alternatively, he may pursue the “takeover” of the Gaza Strip to develop what he envisions as a “Middle Eastern Riviera.”

Another classic Trump venture: “Trump Tower,” this time in Belgrade. Following locations in New York, Chicago, Manila, and Istanbul, this would mark the fifth “Trump Tower” globally.

Richard Grenell and Jared Kushner

In March 2024, a coalition involving the Serbian government, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Arab investors forged a deal estimated at half a billion dollars. The proposal includes transforming the former General Staff building into a hotel complex featuring luxury apartments and a memorial for the victims of the 1999 NATO bombing, which also affected that building.

This project, initiated in 2012, is only just beginning construction, a delay attributed largely to Trump’s key advisor, Richard Grenell. Grenell, who previously acted as special envoy for the Balkans during Trump’s first term, now occupies the role of “special envoy for missions.”

Grenell is known to maintain warm relations with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Foreign Minister Marko Đurić, a former ambassador to Washington. In recognition of his “balanced approach” on Kosovo, Grenell was awarded a medal by Vučić in 2023; Kosovo remains a contentious claim for Serbia, even after 26 years since the war.

Consistently critical of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, Grenell met with Ramush Haradinaj, a former competitor of Kurti, just before Trump’s inauguration. Haradinaj expressed that Kurti’s continued leadership would be “bad for Kosovo.” Previously, Kurti sparked Grenell’s resentment by rejecting a territorial exchange between Kosovo and Serbia put forth by the American mediator.

Rod Blagojevich

Rod Blagojevich, born to Serbian immigrants, has a unique history even by Trump’s standards. Recently, Politico reported that Trump is considering appointing him as ambassador to Belgrade. Once a Democrat, Blagojevich served as Illinois governor until his impeachment in 2009, followed by a 14-year sentence for corruption. After being removed from office, he became a contestant on Trump’s reality show, Celebrity Apprentice.

During his first term, Trump commuted Blagojevich’s sentence, leading to his release in 2020. Following Trump’s confirmation as a presidential candidate in May 2024, Blagojevich joined Grenell in the election campaign, particularly resonating with American Serb communities that traditionally support Trump, and among nationalist politicians in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo.

In spring 2024, five American businessmen of Serbian descent gathered at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, including Ranko Ristic from Zastava Arms USA. Ristic recounted how Trump introduced Blagojevich as a “great friend” and “close associate.” During the gathering, Ristic relayed stories of Serbian defense against mujahedin in the 1990s war.

During a recent visit to Belgrade, Blagojevich directly apologized to President Vučić for America’s actions during the Kosovo war and the 1999 bombing. He remarked, “My country committed grave injustices against yours in the 1990s, akin to Russia’s actions in Ukraine… President Trump aims to mend ties between our nations.”

Blagojevich has publicly condemned Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, accusing him of perpetuating “ethnic cleansing” against Serbs in Kosovo.

Insights from Balkan Experts Danijel Server and Kurt Basuner

Daniel Serwer, a Johns Hopkins University scholar and former Balkans envoy under President Clinton, remarked to DW: “Blagojevich is an ideal choice for Belgrade – a significantly corrupt politician willing to do whatever Trump desires for rehabilitation.”

While U.S. policy shifts may favor Vučić, mass protests in Serbia since November have exacerbated his aggressive stance on Kosovo, likely as a distraction from domestic issues.

In a recent interview, Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić characterized Kosovo as “our southern province” and asserted that Serbs there experience “constant discrimination and harassment.” This sentiment was echoed by the Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces, Milan Mojsilović, who stated the military is prepared to “safeguard Serbs and other non-Albanians in our southern province.” Vučić has escalated his rhetoric, previously labeling Kurti a “terrorist,” now dubbing him a “scoundrel” who “abhors Serbs.”

Kurt Basuner, from the Berlin-based “Council for Democratization Policy,” cautions DW that aspirations for Greater Serbia pose risks not only to Kosovo’s territorial integrity but also to Bosnia and Herzegovina. The EU might respond to Belgrade’s aggressive stance against its neighbors by “significantly boosting” EUFOR (Althea) forces in Bosnia, which could encompass combat troops, according to Basuner.

In this context, the Grenell-Kushner-Blagojevich team, closely connected to the White House, could greatly benefit Belgrade. The already slim chances for improving relations between Serbia and Kosovo would become even less attainable.

In light of 2023’s tensions, when Serbian forces launched strikes against NATO and Kosovo security personnel and amassed troops at Kosovo’s border, it was only through U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s direct engagement and significant NATO pressure that Serbia withdrew its military assets.

Server and Basuner express skepticism about U.S. military intervention to halt Vučić’s forces now. Moreover, Server warns that merely discussing the partition of Kosovo or Ukraine could incite similar movements among Serb separatists in Bosnia.

“It would then be up to the Bosnians to act. And for Kosovo, the Javelin would represent their best line of defense,” Server stated. Without access to these vital American anti-tank missiles, effective defense against a Russian incursion into Ukraine in 2022 would be unimaginable.

Given the current security landscape, the escalation of potential conflicts in the Western Balkans—surrounded by EU nations—appears increasingly probable.

News