Why Did Brčko Obtain Special District Status in BiH?

During the Dayton negotiations, there was no consensus on which entity should have Brčko, previously controlled by the Republika Srpska Army during the war. Consequently, the parties decided that an arbitration process under international supervision would determine Brčko’s status.

In 1999, the Arbitration Tribunal decided that Brčko would function as a district, governed by the “exclusive sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina” and possessing its own authorities.

The role of the “Supervisor for Brčko” is to oversee the implementation of this decision, typically performed by the Deputy High Representative in BiH, currently Louis J. Krišok. The Tribunal also indicated that the arbitral award could be altered if a party fails to adhere to its terms.

Why is Brčko “in Focus” Again?

Brčko has resurfaced as a focal point of political conflict in BiH after Republika Srpska contested the authority of state institutions, including the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, along with the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA). In light of these actions by RS authorities, which followed a verdict against Milorad Dodik for ignoring the decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH and the High Representative’s Cabinet, Supervisor Krišok warned that jeopardizing the constitutional order of BiH could lead to a reassessment of Brčko’s arbitration status.

Krišok emphasized, “Any attempt to undermine the state order could have severe consequences for the status of the District and its unique position within BiH,” following discussions with Clint Williamson, the presiding arbitrator of the Brčko Arbitration Tribunal.

Military-political analyst Đuro Kozar from Sarajevo notes that RS President Milorad Dodik persists in claiming Brčko is the property of that entity. He asserts to DW that the Brčko District is a part of sovereign Bosnia and Herzegovina, holding significant geopolitical importance due to its location at the tri-border of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia.

Kozar states, “The RS authorities aim to detach Brčko from BiH by unilaterally nullifying the powers of state agencies in the RS, potentially claiming Brčko as their own. Should this occur, it would reward the criminal ideology perpetrated by the Republika Srpska Army in Brčko,” he told DW.

What Does a Final Arbitration Award Entail and Who Can Change It?

Bodi Weber, a senior fellow at the Berlin-based Council for Democratization Policy, explains that “The final arbitration decision for Brčko contains a clause allowing for amendments in the event of a breach of the Dayton Agreement, even including the option to assign Brčko to one of the entities.” Weber tells DW that Brčko Supervisor Krišok “had valid reasons” to mention this in relation to the unconstitutional actions taken by the RS Government and National Assembly, but he cautions that such a change “would need robust EUFOR involvement to implement.”

According to constitutional law expert Prof. Nurko Pobrić from Mostar, any modifications to the Final Arbitration Award could be decided by Clint Williamson, the Tribunal’s President. He warns, however, that “the international community has not been sufficiently decisive in responding to the RS’s secessionist actions.”

How Has Brčko Previously Been Associated with RS Secession?

Brčko has previously arisen in discussions surrounding crises prompted by secessionist threats from the RS and declarations of abolishing state powers within that entity. Consequently, pro-Bosniak officials have called for increased deployment of EUFOR and NATO forces in the Brčko District.

Denis Zvizdić, a member of the Collegium of the BiH Parliament, stated on social media in March 2024, “I urge the immediate deployment of EUFOR or NATO troops to the Brčko District of BiH, as the most effective response to Dodik’s threatening rhetoric about the secession of the RS entity. This would help maintain stability in BiH, the region, and the European Union.”

Simultaneously, RS Interior Minister Siniša Karan opined that it was time to reassess the necessity of international supervision over the District and the Arbitration Tribunal.

Positioned between two entities, the district effectively divides RS’s territory, as Hina journalist Ranko Mavrak notes. Creating a discourse about Brčko sends a clear signal from the international community to Dodik: any threat to peace in BiH could also risk RS’s status. Theoretically, the district could be annexed to the Federation of BiH, and Dodik would have limited options to prevent this—excluding resorting to armed resistance, which would likely be intolerable even to Aleksandar Vučić,” Mavrak expressed to DW.

What is the Stance of International Actors and Do They Have the Means to Act?

BiH Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković maintains that “blatant violations of the BiH Constitution by RS authorities necessitate the prompt adoption of a final arbitration decision and increased international engagement.”

“If unconstitutional legislation is published in the Official Gazette of the RS, a new arbitration decision for Brčko should be made without hesitation,” Konaković stated.

Bodo Weber argues that implementing a change to Brčko’s status would be challenging without substantial international backing. “It’s uncertain whether Krišok and Williamson would decide on such a radical yet justified move, or whether they would secure support from the Trump administration given the current political climate,” Weber highlighted.

A German analyst warns that political will is critical: “For years, the international community lacked a clear response to Dodik’s secession threats. If it were to adopt a more decisive position now, RS could face serious repercussions, including economic sanctions and an increased presence of international forces,” he concluded.

Is Spotlighting Brčko Pressuring RS and Other Stakeholders in the Crisis?

The RS’s threats to dismiss state institutions could prompt heightened international involvement in Brčko, signaling to Dodik that certain red lines have been crossed, journalist Hina Mavrak contends, noting that “an increased EUFOR presence in Brčko could deter destabilizing actions by the RS.”

Goran Marković, a constitutional law professor from RS, perceives Krišok’s warning as a form of pressure on RS. “It implicitly opens the door for the possibility of Brčko being assigned to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, potentially setting a precedent for future amendments to the Dayton Agreement,” Marković stated to DW.

Prof. Nurko Pobrić asserts that international pressure need not be solely directed at RS. “It’s clear that international officials’ statements respond to the actions of the RS authorities, but the real question is how the situation will unfold and how key actors will respond,” he remarked.

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