“The student uprising is a distinctly remarkable and atypical event,” observes Andrej Ivanji, a journalist for the public service MDR in Belgrade. “It erupted unexpectedly within a lethargic Serbian society, where young individuals particularly distanced themselves from political engagement, even amidst electoral manipulation and the extensive abuse of state resources for party interests, which represented a significant vulnerability for the civic opposition.”

“The Serbian student demonstrations arose solely from domestic sources, lacking logistical or financial aid from Western nations, which have previously backed democratic movements against dictatorship in the so-called color revolutions in other Eastern European countries. Furthermore, these protests unfolded regardless of the stances taken by the European Union, the United States, and even Germany, which have effectively endorsed the Serbian autocrat Vučić and his governing system for the past decade, thereby aiding in the erosion of Serbian democracy,” the article asserts.

“The student movement is rapidly gaining momentum across Serbia, not due to but rather in spite of ineffectual and marginalized opposition parties. There are no identifiable leaders – every decision is made democratically and on a daily basis during faculty plenums. It’s both impressive and unexpected how disciplined, organized, and united these young protesters, who communicate through social media, are. Their fervor and relentless energy are infectious. Older citizens often respond emotionally to the youth fighting for a semblance of normalcy in a nation that, by European democratic standards, is anything but normal.”

“The essence of the students’ demands can actually be distilled to one fundamental notion: the rule of law,” the author points out. “With the prime minister’s resignation, two possible paths lie ahead: either the parliament will appoint a new government or the president will call for early parliamentary elections. The latter seems more probable to me. Feeling powerless in the face of these student protests, Vučić will attempt to redirect the focus to arenas where he feels more adept. For, irrespective of the elections at stake, he has not experienced defeat in thirteen years. However, he has yet to contend with an opponent like this one.”

Vučić would likely lose a fair election – but fair elections are absent

“Is Vučić on the brink of downfall?” queries journalist Florian Hassel in his commentary for the Süddeutsche Zeitung. His conclusion is that he is not. “Vučić commands a complex party apparatus that oversees all public enterprises and institutions. Given the lack of competition within the Serbian economy, positions are being allocated here in exchange for votes supporting Vučić’s faction. Anyone who defies this is at risk of salary reductions or dismissal, a reality evident in Belgrade schools that have either joined the student protests or contemplated doing so. Moreover, Vučić’s protection from Brussels and Berlin is not solely because of the lithium project, but also due to his facilitation of the Serbian military industry in producing arms for Ukraine.”

“Under current circumstances, Vučić could potentially lose a fair election, especially in Belgrade. But fair elections have long been a thing of the past in Serbia. Voting processes are manipulated at every level, while the regime’s numerous television stations and tabloids suppress any emergence of political alternatives. Significant changes would need to occur in Serbia before any real transformation takes place,” concludes the commentator for the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

The forthcoming elections would be as irregular as those before them.

The Friedrich Naumann Foundation, aligned with the German Liberals (FDP), published an interview with Markus Kaiser, their representative for the Western Balkans, on its website. He assessed: “Although the prime minister’s resignation constitutes Vučić’s most substantial concession, it also represents his greatest acknowledgment that he has unilateral control over Serbia. Nevertheless, Serbian society has previously risen against a head of state, 25 years ago, which led to profound upheaval in their life trajectories. The pressing question is whether the populace is willing to take that chance again. The recollection of Slobodan Milošević’s overthrow and the ensuing uncertainty overshadows these considerations.”

Kaiser continues: “The European Union has thus far tolerated Aleksandar Vučić due to his promise of stability and, more recently, access to resources like lithium. Citizens in Serbia are acutely aware of this. The EU could treat Serbia’s membership candidacy in the same manner it addresses rule of law violations within the Union, including financial sanctions. The absence of any critique, even amid widespread electoral fraud, has repeatedly left Serbian civil society high and dry.”

At the same time, as the German foundation representative points out, “the Serbian opposition comprises pro-Russian factions, party oligarchies, and some parties that are genuinely pro-European and democratically inclined. Fifteen years of nationalist propaganda in power have profoundly influenced the electorate. The regime is already circulating a narrative that the protests represent a foreign-controlled colored revolution, claiming only the ruling party can save Serbia from external forces – which is particularly cynical due to the EU and its members not taking serious action that would genuinely threaten the regime’s stability.”

Markus Kaiser ultimately concludes that “it is reasonable to anticipate that, given the existing conditions in Serbia, characterized by a media landscape completely under governmental control that continuously undermines the opposition, the forthcoming elections will be just as irregular as previous ones. The Serbian populace, currently voicing profound discontent regarding the state of the nation, finds itself in a severely disadvantageous political situation.”

The club scene in Serbia shows solidarity with students

The public broadcaster WDR is reporting on the protests in Serbia, highlighting a specific element connected to student blockades: “The demonstrators are also garnering support from the Serbian club scene. Most clubs remain shuttered, signaling solidarity for the mass student protests. Clubs like Drugstore, Club 20/44, and Karmakoma in Belgrade are closed. The organizers of the internationally recognized Exit Festival in Novi Sad have also expressed their solidarity with the students and participated in the demonstrations.”

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