Thirty years after the Srebrenica genocide, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is grappling with a significant political crisis. Milorad Dodik’s calls for separatism, coupled with Russian influence and a sluggish European integration process, are exacerbating internal fractures. An analysis by the Financial Times (FT) highlights the tangible risks of destabilization in the country, as the international community struggles to find an effective response to the challenges jeopardizing regional stability.

Despite being labeled an international pariah, Dodik has been quite the frequent flyer, notes the British newspaper, referencing the “free movement” of the President of Republika Srpska (RS) in recent months, especially after an arrest warrant against him was rescinded last week following his court appearance.

In late March, mere days after a warrant for his arrest was issued due to his opposition to the post-war arrangement in Bosnia, the RS leader traveled to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin. Shortly thereafter, he made a return trip to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over the Nazis alongside a diverse political assembly.

The Kremlin has historically preferred to cultivate alliances with pro-Russian advocates and sympathizers in Europe. Dodik’s interactions underscore why, three decades post-war, European officials are increasingly refocusing their attention on Bosnia, concerned that renewed turmoil may be on the horizon.

“We are witnessing the most severe political crisis in 30 years,” remarked a senior Western official in the region. “While it isn’t yet a security crisis, the situation is serious and deteriorating. Dodik represents the single greatest threat to BiH,” he cautioned.

According to the FT, Bosnia’s political landscape has oscillated from one crisis to another since the end of the 1990s conflict, remaining divided along ethnic lines. Officials and diplomats are now concerned that the fragile central government established by the Dayton peace agreement is nearing collapse.

Russia’s Influence over Bosnia and Herzegovina

At the heart of the turmoil is 66-year-old Dodik, who is overtly challenging the very frameworks that have historically maintained stability in Bosnia, pursuing measures that could lead RS toward secession, the analysis asserts. Western officials worry that Russia may capitalize on these tensions to incite unrest in Europe, and if Dodik is not thwarted, Bosnia may be on the brink of renewed instability.

“Should Dodik triumph, the emperor (BiH and its Western allies) will find itself exposed,” stated one Western diplomat.

“The Russians have a straightforward path to provoke a response here, and if they perceive an opportunity to elicit a reaction from BiH, they will seize it,” he added.

This ominous backdrop coincides with the 30th anniversary of the Srebrenica massacre in July 1995, recognized by the UN as the first genocide in Europe since the Holocaust, notes the FT.

Bosnia stands at a pivotal moment, asserts Igor Crnadak, an opposition figure in the RS parliament. “Moscow is manipulating Dodik. His regime has inflicted substantial harm, presenting an opportunity for change. The critical question remains whether BiH will irreversibly lean toward the West… or if RS will descend into total autocracy,” he warned.

Almasa Salihović is acutely aware of what is at stake in BiH’s political landscape.

Four years ago, while a primary school teacher in eastern Bosnia, Salihović received a call from an unfamiliar number. The voice wasted no time: “Are you Abdulah’s brother or sister?” she recalls. “We have a DNA match relating to two thigh bones.”

Indeed, she was Abdulah’s sister. The last time she saw him was on July 11, 1995, in Srebrenica, where he was among over 8,000 Muslim men and boys murdered by Bosnian Serbs and covertly buried in mass graves scattered across the country.

After 13 years with no knowledge of his fate, Salihović discovered in 2008 that some of her brother’s remains had been recovered from a mass grave. In 2021, she was informed that additional remains had been located.

“It was painful to confirm his death and realize that he could never be found,” Salihović reflects. “Having a grave to mourn is more comforting. When we found a piece of his shorts, it felt even more agonizing than having no remains at all,” she adds.

Salihović, now at the Srebrenica Memorial Center, fears that as acceptance of the harrowing truth about Srebrenica emerged in the decade after the war, a resurgence of denial is now taking root.

In Srebrenica, she often meets Serbs who minimize the atrocities. “The narrative is persistent, ‘The entire world is against the Serbian nation,’” she states. “In the past two years, I have begun to dread how easily people are influenced by politicians revisiting history to stoke nationalism.”

The FT notes that few have fueled religious and ethnic tensions as consistently as Dodik, who was initially perceived in the West as a more liberal voice in Bosnian Serb politics. US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright had even deemed him “a breath of fresh air” in 1998.

I have started to fear how easily people are swayed by politicians who exploit history to incite nationalism.

However, the past fifteen years have seen Dodik increasingly embracing Serbian nationalism, as the FT recalls. Just last year, he and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić denounced a UN resolution declaring July 11 as a day of remembrance for Srebrenica victims, using the opportunity to assert that the world persecutes Serbs.

A Sarajevo court imposed a six-year political ban and a one-year prison sentence on Dodik this February for contesting the High Representative’s decisions in Bosnia, but he has disregarded the ruling. The FT indicates that a pivotal query looms over whether central authorities will attempt to enforce the ruling, risking a confrontation with RS security forces. Dodik travels with an armed militia who have previously clashed with state police.

Christian Schmidt, the current High Representative and former German minister, approaches the enforcement of such rulings cautiously, hoping to see Dodik lose the election instead. He describes the situation as a “serious but solvable” crisis.

‘Slow Train’ to the EU – BiH’s Greatest Aspiration

His ambition is to help transform Bosnia and Herzegovina into a functioning state poised for EU membership before eventually stepping down as the last High Representative. According to the FT, abolishing his position is crucial for BiH to have any realistic chance of EU candidacy, a sentiment echoed by the majority of citizens, as polls indicate.

The FT also notes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 breathed new life into the EU’s eastern expansion efforts following a stagnation in the candidacy of the six Western Balkan nations.

However, Schmidt recognizes that many believe the Dayton framework, despite its flaws, will remain in place for the foreseeable future, and that Bosnia still has substantial work ahead to meet EU membership criteria.

“Long-time observers suggest I should prepare for another 20 years if I aspire to be the last High Representative,” he quipped.

Opposition politician Mladen Ivanić believes BiH’s best strategy lies in a two-stage EU membership plan, advocated by France, which could place Balkan states on a “slow train” allowing them to meet some of the EU’s stipulations gradually. He asserts that officials in both Brussels and Sarajevo prefer to act as if full membership is a realistic goal.

“Europe is deceiving us. We are deceiving them. While Europe claims the door is open, the reality is that a lengthy wait lies ahead,” he contends.

Despite the numerous challenges posed by the Dayton Agreement, it has maintained peace. Many overlook its successes, argues Nedžma Džananović, a political science professor at the University of Sarajevo.

“Even Dodik acknowledges that certain issues should remain untouched.”

Nonetheless, she expresses concern that Dodik faces no repercussions.

“We are effectively normalizing the final partition of the country. While Dodik accepts the national currency and tax revenue, he dismisses other BiH institutions in the RS,” she remarks.

After a decade-long absence from the international radar, rising alarm among European officials is palpable, the British newspaper reports, noting the increase in EUFOR troops deployed this year.

Although Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban obstructed a cohesive EU response, several member nations and the UK have instituted sanctions against Dodik.

Western officials express hope that more moderate Bosnian Serb leaders will supplant Dodik, encouraging cooperation. Yet, with Bosnian Croat leaders also advocating for greater autonomy, the flaws of the Dayton Accords are increasingly dangerous, if not dysfunctional.

The analysis underscores that for the generation born post-war, particularly in the culturally diverse heart of Sarajevo, the current stalemate is infuriating—intensified by distressing political corruption. BiH ranks alongside Belarus in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, achieving its worst score to date this year.

Dayton – A System Engineered for Corruption

In the meanwhile, young people are fleeing BiH, with the post-war population declining from a peak of 4.2 million in 2002 to just over three million presently.

“Corruption is so intricately woven into the fabric of society that it continues to astonish me,” laments Gordana Miladinović, an anti-corruption activist who experienced the Siege of Sarajevo during her youth. “It forms part of the culture and accelerates the disintegration of society, values, and ethics.”

Additions to this toxic mix include the absence of a robust criminal justice system. It often appears that the more corrupt one is, the easier it is to evade accountability. Numerous individuals enter politics solely for personal gain,” she maintains.

The Dayton framework is so convoluted, laden with multiple governance layers, that it is “inherently designed for corruption.”

Franjo Topić, an academic in Sarajevo advocating for a multi-ethnic state, posits that abolishing the entities and establishing a centralized government is key. “The entities were a viable means to end the war,” he states. “Now, a more centralized state could prove more effective. The entities are ill-equipped to handle the current challenges; they’re akin to two small nations,” he elaborates.

However, Miladinović suspects that numerous interest groups are seeking to perpetuate the current system, suggesting that dysfunction will endure. “A significant modification to the Dayton framework is improbable,” she believes.

Corruption is so deeply interwoven in society that it continues to astound me. It’s embedded in the culture.

Moreover, the FT mentions a “Putin Cafe” located on the main street of Banja Luka, contributing to the perception that both the RS leaders and Russia wish to promote an alliance based on a supposed shared identity of Russian and Serbian values as Slavs and Orthodox Christians.

Dodik’s adversaries downplay his Russian support as largely symbolic rather than substantive. “Russia has neither the time nor the inclination to engage in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Ivanić remarks. “They are preoccupied with their own issues. What are they contributing here? Hardly anything of import. I’ve not observed any long-term strategic engagement,” he states.

Dodik himself ridicules the notion of seeking secession. “You won’t find a single tax of mine directed towards that goal, nor will you find any statements to that effect,” he told Euronews Serbia recently.

In a rare show of compliance, he attended a court hearing last Friday, leading Bosnian prosecutors to rescind an arrest warrant previously issued for him. Nevertheless, analysts from both Banja Luka and Sarajevo fear that his ambition is to engineer a Western Balkan counterpart of Transnistria, a Russian-backed separatist region in Moldova.

The British newspaper recalls that two years ago, Dodik enacted a contentious law within the RS parliament effectively negating his recognition of the central constitutional court. He is currently orchestrating a referendum regarding a new RS constitution draft, the stipulations of which could mimic secession.

Recently, he has implemented laws restricting civil society and media, following the autocratic strategies of leaders like Orban and Putin.

“Institutions are crumbling,” observes Ivana Korajlić, head of Transparency International’s Banja Luka office. “If you assess the rule of law, our approach was more robust two decades ago. Since then, international presence and pressure in BiH have diminished, allowing local elites and networks to seize control. We find ourselves in a perpetual crisis, whether constitutional or security-related, and each time Dodik advances further to gain credibility,” she adds.

The FT notes that the 30th anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide will be marked by somber declarations from Western officials. “Yet, despite their renewed focus on outplaying Dodik, many BiH citizens are apprehensive that the crisis will be permitted to simmer,” the newspaper concludes.

Džananović, the political science professor, suggests that no one dares to obstruct him. “As long as his family and assets are secure, he will persist in exacerbating this crisis. Should he encounter serious opposition, he and his family may seek refuge in Hungary, or ultimately in Moscow. However, he is likely to remain, as he has no compelling reason to depart,” she concluded.

News