USAID, the United States Agency for International Development, has been a vital ally to the Western Balkans for years, assisting their endeavors to enhance democracy, foster economic growth, and develop civil society. The abrupt halting of this assistance under Trump’s administration casts doubt on the future of American support for the region and its implications for economic progress and political stability.

This suspension follows remarks by billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, who labeled USAID a “criminal organization” and advocated for its dissolution. The USAID website is currently inaccessible, and some employees are reportedly on “forced leave.” Moreover, USAID’s account has been removed from Elon Musk’s social media platform, X. Reports indicate that USAID officials declined to share confidential information with Musk’s Office of Government Efficiency.

Instructions from Marco Rubio

Prior to the shutdown of its website, USAID informed DW that specific humanitarian projects deemed “life-saving” would not be affected by the 90-day halt of US development assistance. “Ongoing life-saving humanitarian programs are expected to continue functioning,” USAID stated.

DW received a directive from USAID signed by the acting US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. “For this exemption, life-saving humanitarian assistance includes critical medicines, medical services, food, shelter, livelihood support, and associated administrative costs for delivering such aid,” the directive specifies.

Control over or elimination of USAID?

It was noted that the temporary exemptions from the suspension of US development assistance do not extend to abortions, family planning initiatives, gender equality conferences, diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, transgender surgeries, or any non-“lifesaving” assistance.

Marco Rubio was appointed as the acting administrator of USAID on Monday (February 3). This agency has functioned independently for over sixty years. Reports suggest that the Trump administration aims to either assert full control over it or, according to Elon Musk, abolish it entirely.

USAID’s role in the Western Balkans

Until the suspension, USAID was actively engaged in various initiatives throughout the Western Balkans, addressing multiple aspects of development. This support spanned numerous sectors, from bolstering governmental institutions and civil society to aiding in economic growth, education, healthcare, and environmental conservation.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), USAID facilitated numerous projects in tourism, energy, and human rights protection, primarily through enhancing the capabilities of civil society organizations. In Serbia, the organization focused on strengthening democratic institutions, judiciary reform, enhancing media freedoms, and fostering private sector growth. During the 90s and early 2000s, USAID invested in infrastructure renewal, private sector development, and democratic institution strengthening in Croatia, and similar efforts were made in Montenegro and other regional countries.

While it’s challenging to quantify the total investment by USAID in the Western Balkans since the 1990s due to the extensive timeline and various forms of assistance, regional media reports suggest that US aid to Western Balkan nations over this period is in the billions, with the majority funneled through USAID initiatives.

Potential repercussions for the Western Balkans

The halting of USAID assistance may lead to considerable repercussions for the Western Balkans. Analysts have already suggested that withdrawing support could diminish American influence in several nations considered allies amidst the current global instability, including in the Western Balkans.

Lack of financial and technical assistance could result in the postponement of vital projects and hinder reform processes. USAID has been instrumental in supporting democratic reforms and the rule of law, and its suspension may stall these efforts, putting recent progress at risk.

Impact on BiH and Serbia

Davor Đenero, a political analyst from Zagreb, highlights that many civil society organizations in the region depend on funding from USAID. The cessation of this assistance could force some organizations to close and reduce their capacity to operate in key areas such as human rights protection and anti-corruption initiatives.

Đenero asserts that the suspension of USAID support will significantly impact NGOs in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. “Unlike Croatia, NGOs in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina lack the safety net of EU membership, making it harder for them to secure funding. They are limited to minimal European resources,” he tells DW.

Political challenges without support

DW’s source points out that the new landscape has not been anticipated. “Particularly in Serbia, where shifts in the ruling political structure of the authoritarian regime are underway, and BiH continues to face strong centrifugal forces,” Đenero cautions.

He emphasizes that NGOs play a critical role in developing civil society within the Western Balkans. “Without a strong civil society, there will be no foundation for democratic institutions in Serbia, nor a transition away from authoritarianism, while in BiH, lacking a vibrant non-governmental sector will complicate efforts to sustain the values of a unified and sovereign nation,” Đenero concludes.

Searching for alternatives

The decision to suspend USAID assistance has sparked myriad inquiries concerning the future of international support for the Western Balkans. Analysts assert that affected countries will need to seek alternative funding sources to continue essential projects and reforms. The full impact of the suspension is yet to be determined, but it is already evident that its ramifications will be felt across the entire region.

Founded by US President John F. Kennedy in 1961 during the height of the Cold War, USAID was seen as a strategic initiative by Washington to counter Soviet influence effectively. It appears that Donald Trump aims to dismantle this legacy.

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