Kosovo is set to hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, providing an opportunity to enhance political stability and actively shape relations with Serbia, as well as with other international stakeholders. However, there is uncertainty regarding the future involvement of the US in the region, as noted by the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation.

The foundation, associated with the liberal FDP party and part of the European Movement in Germany, emphasizes that while the US remains an “irreplaceable” protecting power and member of the international KFOR force in Kosovo, some key associates of Donald Trump have implied a lack of genuine support for Kosovo.

In the previous elections of 2021, Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s leftist-populist Self-Determination Movement achieved a significant victory, garnering 50.3 percent of the votes, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation reports.

Since then, Kurti’s administration has introduced various measures that have elicited reactions both domestically and abroad. The international community has sharply criticized the unilateral closure of Serbian institutions, arguing that normalization should be pursued through dialogue rather than coercion.

Despite these criticisms, the foundation notes that these actions have bolstered Prime Minister Kurti’s popularity at home.

This election marks the ninth since Kosovo’s independence in 2008 and the first since 2010 to be conducted on a regular schedule, as Kurti’s government is the first to complete a full term.

Voting is currently taking place for 120 seats in the Kosovo Assembly, with ten reserved for the Serbian minority and another ten for additional minorities in Kosovo. In total, 28 electoral lists featuring 1,280 candidates will participate.

The foundation highlights that Kosovo, with a population of under two million, has a notably young electorate. Since the 2021 elections, an additional 150,000 citizens have obtained the right to vote. Turnout was highest among young voters aged 18 to 21, reaching 57 percent, according to electoral commission data.

Additionally, the analysis suggests that the Kosovo diaspora, which makes up about five to ten percent of the electorate, may play a crucial role in influencing the election outcome.

Polls indicate that Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement could secure between 45 to 50 percent of the votes. The Democratic Party of Kosovo, affiliated with the liberal European party ALDE, is projected to receive around 17 to 20 percent, while the conservative Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) might attain approximately 15 percent.

Consequently, a significant change in power is not anticipated, though Self-Determination may be compelled to form coalitions, as noted by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.

The Atlantic Center characterizes Albin Kurti as a courageous yet divisive figure, praised by reformists eager for rapid change but criticized by others who fear his policies could hinder progress towards better regional relations.

“To many, he symbolizes hope and advancement, while for others, his firm stances on internal reforms raise concerns. As voters prepare to cast their ballots, Kurti’s leadership remains a focal point of political discourse in Kosovo, prompting discussions about the country’s future,” states the Atlantic Council’s European Center.

“Kosovo’s future significantly hinges on its integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions, alongside the formation of a new European Commission and the potential implications of the recent appointment of the EU’s special envoy, Peter Sorensen, on the dialogue normalization process with Serbia. Additionally, any shift in the priorities of the new US administration introduces further uncertainty,” the Atlantic Council assesses.

The Council emphasizes that Kosovo’s relationship with the US, as it maneuvers through a shifting global landscape, will play a crucial role in determining the country’s trajectory, with the elections expected to influence Kosovo’s journey towards EU membership.

“Should Kurti secure a renewed majority mandate, the country might confront intensified challenges in its relations with the EU, particularly if US President Trump moves away from traditional American support while Brussels remains fragmented over EU expansion,” the Atlantic Council warns. “If the Self-Determination Party finds itself in a coalition with the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) or the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), there is hope that Kurti’s rhetoric could shift to become more moderate, allowing for greater openness to dialogue with regional and international partners,” the Atlantic Council concludes.

“Conversely, a coalition of the PDK and LDK without Self-Determination could result in an unpredictable agenda and an unstable mandate. Given Kurti’s substantial support, he would likely pose a formidable opposition for a PDK or LDK prime minister, akin to the challenges faced by diverse political coalitions in Europe, such as those in France, Spain, or potentially Germany, where varying alliances grapple with unity to the detriment of effective policymaking,” the Atlantic Council concludes.

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