NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is currently visiting Sarajevo and Pristina, highlighting the region’s significance during tense times, as pointed out by Frauke Zebas from the Foundation for Science and Politics.

His trip to Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina comes amidst increasing transatlantic tensions and the threat of renewed conflicts in the Western Balkans.

Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg frequently cautioned against the dangers of stalled conflicts in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mark Rutte is embarking on his inaugural visit to these nations since assuming office in October 2024.

This Monday (March 10), he will first arrive in Sarajevo, followed by a visit to Pristina the following day.

The journey takes place against a backdrop of transatlantic discord, presenting an exceptional challenge to European security, particularly in the Western Balkans, where the unfinished processes of transformation and EU integration remain a critical issue for the continent.

KFOR forces have been maintaining peace and securing borders in Kosovo since the end of the war in 1999, while international peacekeeping missions have been present in Bosnia and Herzegovina as per the Dayton Agreement, with EU leadership since 2004.

Despite more than twenty years post-war, the prospect of European troop withdrawal seems unlikely—if anything, the opposite appears true.

The onset of Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine has drawn renewed international attention to the area, particularly as the security landscape has worsened due to recent geopolitical shifts.

Tense Security Landscape

Since the Dayton Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been split into two entities that enjoy broad autonomy but are administered collectively at the state level. Republika Srpska, led by President Milorad Dodik, who has pursued aggressive nationalist policies, is seeking to detach itself from Bosnia and Herzegovina—a move met with substantial international backlash.

Dodik is under US sanctions, and in February, a Bosnian court sentenced him to imprisonment and imposed a six-year ban on political office. He has rejected this verdict, garnering support from Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Dodik also nurtures ties with the Kremlin. On January 9 of this year, a parade for the Republika Srpska police was held in Banja Luka, attended by representatives from Serbia and Russia.

This date commemorates the founding of Republika Srpska in 1992—a declaration that was deemed illegal and marked a pivotal moment leading to the conflict in Bosnia. The Supreme Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina has prohibited the celebration of January 9 as an official holiday.

Tensions in Kosovo

In Kosovo, the Pristina government has been enforcing a policy aimed at establishing unique national symbols and institutions since 2021.

This former Serbian province, predominantly ethnic Albanian, declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a move that Belgrade continues to contest. Consequently, essential public services, especially in the predominantly Serbian north, remain under Belgrade’s jurisdiction.

Instead of using the euro, which is Kosovo’s official currency, Serbian documents and dinars are still in circulation there.

When Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s government attempted to clamp down on these practices, unrest and blockades erupted in northern Kosovo, backed by radical nationalists from Serbia and officials in Belgrade.

In 2022, nearly all Serbian representatives and civil servants in law enforcement and the judiciary resigned, and local elections in northern regions were boycotted on two occasions. By 2023, the EU resorted to political and economic actions against Kurti’s administration.

In September 2023, Serbian militants executed a terrorist attack near the Banjska Monastery in northern Kosovo, resulting in the death of a Kosovo police officer and three attackers.

This led to a heightened presence of Kosovo security forces in the north, installation of checkpoints, and a halt on imports from Serbia.

These incidents have propelled interethnic relations to an unprecedented low, with Vučić and Kurti trading accusations while obstructing EU-mediated dialogue.

Concerns Over Potential US Troop Withdrawal

In light of these tensions, Brussels is apprehensive about a potential US troop withdrawal from Europe, which includes approximately 600 soldiers stationed in KFOR. Although European nations have assumed a more significant role in maintaining regional stability since the Yugoslav wars, they have traditionally relied on American support.

Despite Rutte’s reassurances, fears persist over this possibility, especially amid the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from the new US administration under President Donald Trump. Local nationalists, such as Dodik, are feeling emboldened by Trump’s leadership style and anticipate his endorsement.

For instance, Trump’s first administration backed a proposed territorial swap between Kosovo and Serbia in 2018, which envisioned exchanging Albanian-dominated regions in Serbia for areas in Kosovo predominantly inhabited by Serbs.

US officials and close Trump allies, including special envoy Richard Grenell, have openly criticized Kurti and called for the release of former President Hashim Thaci, who faces charges at the Special Court for Kosovo in The Hague, led by the same prosecutor involved in Trump’s cases.

Recently, the Pentagon’s deputy press secretary, Kingsley Wilson, posted on X.com: “Make Kosovo Serbia again.”

While NATO is engrossed in addressing the conflicts in Bosnia and Kosovo, both nations also play a crucial role in shaping the future security architecture of Europe and NATO.

Consequently, international missions in these areas have a responsibility to train local security forces. Both countries maintain diplomatic missions to NATO in Brussels and aspire to join the alliance.

However, Kosovo—with strong public support for NATO membership—has yet to be recognized by four NATO member states.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska’s authorities are obstructing NATO membership, a stance shared by Serbia’s pro-Russian government. Meanwhile, other countries in the Western Balkans—Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia—have already joined NATO.

Mark Rutte’s visit serves as a clear indication that NATO is closely monitoring the region and that maintaining stability remains a top priority for Europe and its allies.

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