It is inaccurate to discuss a decline in overnight stays in Montenegro over the past two years, primarily due to the influx of Russian citizens who have sought refuge in our country since the onset of the war in Ukraine, which skews tourism statistics. Excluding this group from official data presents a significantly different narrative, asserts Petar Golubović from the Center for Tourism Research and Development.

In his analysis, he highlights that the demographic of visitors to Montenegro has shifted, with non-European markets showing a notable increase in tourism.

“A negative narrative about tourism in Montenegro is being pushed by various sources, which impacts our primary economic sector. The public needs to recognize that tourism is extremely sensitive to social, economic, and environmental instabilities. A stark example of this was the tragic incident in Cetinje earlier this year, which impacted Montenegro’s image and tourism. Moreover, tourism is affected by negative publicity often propagated by regional tabloids. Therefore, it is imperative that we responsibly and transparently present tourism parameters and statistics to the public,” Golubović emphasizes.

“To provide a more comprehensive view, we should look at broader industry trends. According to the European Travel Commission (ETC), international travel and arrivals in Europe saw a 4.9% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with overnight stays rising by 2.2%,” he states in his analysis.

For Montenegro, Golubović notes that the number of foreign tourist arrivals grew by 3.54% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 2024, while overnight stays by foreign tourists fell by 10.1%. This trend indicates an increase in arrivals but raises the question of the significant drop in overnight stays.

“Statistical tourism data must be examined with great care. In 2023, many Russian and Ukrainian citizens fleeing the war were counted in the official tourism statistics, leading me to refer to that year as one of ‘refugee tourism.’ Many of these individuals exited Montenegro during 2024, resulting in an official decrease of 800,000 overnight stays. Specifically, Russian visitors accounted for 48,662 fewer arrivals and nearly one million fewer overnight stays compared to 2023,” he adds.

Golubović points out that Russian tourists are a significant factor creating the imbalance in tourism statistics for 2025, reporting 115,681 fewer overnight stays in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This decline is primarily seen in private accommodations, where there were 114,335 fewer overnight stays. Given this, we cannot accurately claim a downward trend in the tourism sector over the last two years. Removing the figures for Russian visitors from official statistics reveals a vastly different scenario,” he asserts.

He also highlights other official data showing increased traffic at border crossings, a higher number of visitors to Montenegro’s National Parks in the first four months of 2025 compared to 2024, and an increase of 1.58% in airport passengers during the same period, all of which support this viewpoint.

“It is clear that the demographic of visitors has changed, with non-European markets showing a 60.6% increase in the first quarter of 2025 compared to 2024. Notably, tourists from China (+95%) and Israel (+915%) represent the most significant growth; however, their average stay in Montenegro is quite short, particularly for Chinese tourists, who averaged just 1.5 days,” the analyst explains.

He urges attention towards the decline in arrivals from crucial markets in Western Europe and Scandinavia.

Regarding tourism income, Golubović believes that distorted statistics inherently affect the revenue perspective. “Analyzing the Central Bank of Montenegro’s data reveals a substantial growth in tourism income during the first quarter of 2023 compared to previous years, with a staggering 150% increase over the record year of 2019. This surge is tied to the arrival of Russian and Ukrainian immigrants who temporarily settled in Montenegro due to the war. Their subsequent departure in 2024 and 2025 leads to recorded declines in arrivals and overnight stays, subsequently affecting tourism revenue. Interestingly, if we compare tourism revenue in Q1 2025 to Q1 2019, we see an 86% increase,” he comments.

He notes that from 2010 to 2019, tourism revenue in Montenegro grew at an annual average of 9.9%, effectively doubling over the decade.

“Looking forward to the upcoming summer season, we anticipate positive indicators based on trends and a 25% anticipated increase in passenger traffic at Tivat airport. While collective accommodation bookings are promising, challenges remain due to traffic infrastructure and construction on several road routes, leading to increased congestion, which could detrimentally affect tourist satisfaction as well as that of local residents. Additionally, the individual accommodation sector faces challenges in filling larger capacities, and enhancing marketing strategies in this area is crucial moving forward,” concludes Golubović.

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