The upcoming elections in Nikšić and their aftermath are unlikely to significantly influence the stability of the Montenegrin Government or the ongoing operations of the Europe Now Movement (PES). However, they will signal a continuing decline for that party, as explained by Nikoleta Đukanović, an assistant professor at the University of Donja Gorica.

She noted that the establishment of a government in Nikšić with Marko Kovačević leading the city administration seems to be a “done deal.” Furthermore, PES is facing the consequences of its opaque leadership, unfulfilled promises to citizens, and compromises made with the former Democratic Front (DF), resulting in a steady drop in public support.

Đukanović highlighted that the elections revealed a solidification of two extreme factions: the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the coalition of former DF parties, while civic lists are not garnering much public backing.

In her view, the biggest casualties of the Nikšić elections are PES, the Democrats, and the Civic Movement (GP) URA.

“Considering previous elections in Podgorica, Budva, and other municipalities, there is a noticeable, ongoing decline for PES, despite being a crucial part of the national government, and having substantial promises for the populace and engaging in populist policies,” said Đukanović.

She asserted that voters are evidently punishing parties that fail to deliver on their promises, particularly regarding economic factors, which contributes to PES’s ongoing decline.

Đukanović pointed out that the Democrats, despite wielding significant power and frequently misusing it during the electoral process, have shown disappointing results. The decline in support for GP URA is also tied to their past actions in governance.

Regarding the formation of the government in Nikšić, Đukanović is confident that Kovačević’s election as mayor is already secured.

“I believe that what unfolds next in Nikšić concerning government formation and related developments won’t significantly impact the government’s stability or PES’s future, but it will signify a further decline for PES in collaboration with trends in other municipalities and national developments,” she opined.

Đukanović mentioned that PES is “paying the highest cost” for allowing former DF parties to dominate the government, despite being the government’s backbone, with the parliamentary majority led by New Serbian Democracy’s president, Andrija Mandić.

When asked if PES’s underwhelming performance in Nikšić was anticipated, Đukanović remarked that it has become increasingly common for voters in Montenegro to hold parties accountable for not fulfilling promises, thus forecasting the decline based on recent events.

“This is a party that made numerous promises and has failed to deliver many of them,” stated Đukanović. She criticized PES for operating in an extremely opaque manner, sidelining critics and civil society, while simultaneously making compromises with the DF, lacking a coherent policy that avoids conflict with their coalition partners.

“I believe this is costing PES dearly, and there appears to be considerable panic among their ranks about how to retain and energize new voters,” added Đukanović.

Additionally, she noted that the trend of mass employment showcased in Nikšić is not yielding positive results.

“I predict that in the next parliamentary elections, PES will become nearly marginal in comparison to its original influence and the number of ministries it currently oversees,” Đukanović opined.

Regarding the possibility of PES withholding support for Kovačević as mayor, Đukanović suggested that, given PES’s recent actions, they are likely to comply with any ultimatums to maintain power.

“This is typical of a party in a state of panic, eager to capitalize on their current power amid uncertainty of future opportunities,” Đukanović remarked.

When asked if PES might consider offering minority support to the For the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG) coalition in Nikšić, she regarded it as a possibility, contingent on PES maintaining national power.

“However, I’m uncertain how beneficial this would be for them, seeing that it would preclude direct involvement in governance,” mentioned Đukanović.

She recalled PES’s initial promise of meritocracy, asserting it would end partitocracy, nepotism, and politically-driven appointments, except for ministerial roles.

“Yet we find ourselves in a situation where the Prime Minister (Milojko Spajić) discusses the percentage a party should receive in terms of influence,” Đukanović added, observing that any minority support would imply alignment with Kovačević’s policies.

Commenting on President Jakov Milatović’s presence in the political landscape, Đukanović expressed that Milatović has lost some credibility and integrity to critique the Government due to recent events.

“His critiques post-election lack the significance they might have had previously,” stated Đukanović, noting that Milatović’s credibility diminished during student protests.

“He is the President of Montenegro who commented on natural disasters abroad while remaining silent on events in Cetinje,” Đukanović remarked.

She believes that, in the current climate, if presidential elections were held, Milatović would struggle for support.

“If he were to face the same opponent (Milo Đukanović) as in the presidential runoff, it would be questionable who would prevail, even though the majority in this country would likely oppose the former president’s return to power,” Đukanović assessed.

She anticipates that Milatović will seek coalition opportunities in the future should he choose to remain politically active after his presidential term, potentially leading or participating in a political party.

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