Milorad Dodik was born into a farming family in Laktaši, located near Banja Luka in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He pursued political science studies in Belgrade and worked within the local government until 1990.

In the 1990 multi-party elections, shortly before the disintegration of Yugoslavia, he was elected to the parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina. He promoted coexistence and a vision for a European future, which led some Serbs to brand him a “traitor.”

During this time, he established a furniture factory, which ultimately failed. Throughout and after the war, he faced accusations from political adversaries regarding involvement in cigarette and fuel smuggling; however, conclusive evidence was never presented.

Bijeljina Night

Following the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement, which concluded the conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dodik founded the Party of Independent Social Democrats in 1996, which later evolved into the Union of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), a party he continues to lead.

Initially, he distinguished himself as a reformist, opposing the nationalist rhetoric of the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), which was prevalent among Serbs. He advocated for a multi-ethnic BiH and famously called for the arrest of war criminals like Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladić, a stance uncommon among Serbian politicians at that time.

“He was bold and pragmatic, admired by Americans,” states Tanja Topić, a political analyst from Banja Luka. “Today, he celebrates those very criminals as national heroes and labels Bosnia as an unnatural product of the international community.”

In 1998, with backing from the West, he became the prime minister of Republika Srpska, one of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s two entities. His election, achieved with merely two parliament members, was facilitated by a dramatic Bijeljina session where SFOR peacekeepers transported a crucial parliament member for a key vote.

That year, the then President of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska, Dragan Kalinić, and the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Momčilo Krajišnik, visited Belgrade at the behest of the Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milošević.

“Stay here; your new prime minister will arrive shortly,” Milošević stated, revealing that it would be Professor Mladen Ivanić. They rejected this, denouncing him as a “British spy.”

Ivanić suggested a government of national unity, but the SDS dismissed the idea. “Instead of a benevolent professor, you’ll get a destroyer named Dodik,” he recalled Milošević’s words.

A Breath of Fresh Wind

Miodrag Živanović, a professor at the University of Banja Luka, remembers discussing this with German Minister Klaus Kinkel in Bonn in 1998:

“Kinkel asked how Dodik managed to form a government with only two MPs. I told him that with just one more, he could have achieved even more,” alluding to the considerable international support Dodik had at that time.

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright hailed Dodik as a “breath of fresh air,” viewing him as a stabilizing partner in implementing the Dayton Agreement. “He has capably guided RS through tumultuous times while focusing on economic growth,” she noted, emphasizing his role in reconciliation.

“The period from 1997 to 2007 was marked by intense international interventionism in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dodik’s audacity in assuming the prime minister role amidst such chaos, coupled with significant pragmatism, defines his governance to this day,” remarks journalist Žarko Marković from Banja Luka.

Dodik originally earned the trust of the international community, including support from Biljana Plavšić, who authorized him to form a government in the pivotal year of 1998. Plavšić was later convicted in The Hague for war crimes and genocide.

However, starting in 2006—after gaining absolute power in the elections—Dodik shifted his stance, championing the independence of Republika Srpska. The threat of a referendum became his primary political tool, garnering significant voter support.

“He transitioned from an internationalist to a nationalist when it suited his narrative,” states Mladen Ivanić.

In 2016, he conducted a referendum on RS Day, despite the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina declaring it unconstitutional. While the referendum was not legally binding, it reaffirmed his authority and showcased his ability to navigate political landscapes.

He marginalized opposition, built a network of political allies, and mastered institutional frameworks, crafting an image as an unchallenged leader.

Referendums on Secession and Indictments

His career, spanning two decades, is characterized by evolution and controversy. After serving as prime minister until 2001, he returned to the position in 2006, held the presidency of RS from 2010 to 2018, served on the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2018 to 2022, and resumed the presidency of RS in 2022.

In 2011, Dodik threatened a referendum concerning the state judiciary, claiming it only targeted Serbs. This provoked a reaction from international figures. Catherine Ashton, then the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, visited Banja Luka to meet him.

“Dear President, I share your vision for BiH’s EU membership, though the path is challenging. We are prepared to assist,” Ashton conveyed post-meeting, leading to negotiations on judicial reform, after which Dodik retracted the referendum. High Representative Valentin Inzko warned that severe sanctions would have been enforced on Dodik and his associates had he persisted with the referendum.

Judicial negotiation efforts ultimately collapsed, and Dodik’s stance has resulted in sanctions from the U.S. and the UK due to threatening the Dayton Agreement and separatist rhetoric. Concurrently, he has fortified ties with Russia, Hungary, and Serbia, losing favor with the European Union, which is now advocating more stringent measures against him.

Dodik currently faces judicial scrutiny in Bosnia and Herzegovina for violating the constitutional order, including a non-final sentence of one year in prison and a six-year prohibition from public office. “I will not abandon RS,” Dodik asserts, as the international community deliberates intervention.

His trajectory—from a reformist figure supported by Western powers to a contentious leader accused of fostering instability—raises important questions: Who is the true Dodik, and what political legacy will he leave?

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