Montenegro is experiencing a prolonged demographic decline, and the increase in wages and gross domestic product is insufficient to halt the population exodus.

These findings are part of the analysis titled “Demographic Crisis: Is Montenegro Planning or Improvising?” conducted by the Society of Statisticians and Demographers and the Center for Democratic Transition (CDT).

According to the analysis, approximately 94,000 citizens have emigrated from Montenegro between 2011 and 2023, averaging 22 individuals per day.

This demographic loss equates to the total population of current cities like Nikšić, Berane, and Gusinje, indicating that existing measures are inadequate to combat these patterns.

It has been noted that initiatives such as child birth bonuses, free housing in rural areas, and the option for one parent to take paid leave for three years, while necessary, do not effectively address the requirements of contemporary society.

“It appears that the priorities of younger generations have evolved beyond mere economic incentives; they are increasingly tied to quality of life, rule of law, and the education system, which are essential factors in making decisions regarding life and family planning in a given region,” states the publication.

The analysis cautions that an exclusive focus on financial incentives, without establishing fundamental prerequisites for a quality lifestyle, could lead Montenegro into a new phase of populism and possibly discrimination, as seen in the case of the “mothers with three or more children,” where the Constitutional Court deemed the measure discriminatory against other women and men.

“Population policies must not be implemented thoughtlessly, nor without solid evidence that they will yield long-term benefits to society,” the analysis emphasizes.

Instead, it is crucial to develop a long-term projection of Montenegro’s demographic trends for the next 50 years, utilizing data from the 2023 Census and considering Montenegro’s expected EU membership by 2030.

In order for Montenegro to effectively address the potential demographic deficit, the analysis concludes that detailed projections of anticipated population outflow and its impacts on the labor market, economic growth, and the social system are necessary.

“This data should serve as the foundation for developing strategies in education, health, employment, immigration policy, and public finances, to create timely mechanisms that mitigate the adverse effects of depopulation,” is one of the central conclusions of the analysis.

It has been pointed out that even after two decades of regained independence, Montenegro still lacks a written demographic development strategy that projects demographic trends and population policies for the long term.

Furthermore, it has been mentioned that the Demographic Council, established in early 2024, has yet to produce any tangible results.

The analysis concludes that the Council is primarily composed of government officials, with only a small number being elected from independent experts, resulting in a body lacking real influence.

The authors of the analysis advocate for a more balanced composition of the Council, with increased representation from independent experts and members of the scientific and research community who specialize in various population-related aspects, to effectively adopt strategic and long-term population measures.

“If the Council continues to be closely aligned with the executive branch, its decisions will be swayed by political cycles and short-term agendas, rather than ensuring long-term stability and continuity in population measures,” the publication concluded.

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