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HomeBalkansDodik's moves could cause unforeseeable consequences in BiH and the region

Dodik’s moves could cause unforeseeable consequences in BiH and the region

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Dodik’s Actions May Bring Unpredictable Outcomes for BiH and the Surrounding Region

Denis Bećirović, a member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, convened a meeting with representatives from various international institutions. Those present included Christian Schmidt, the High Representative in BiH; Luigi Sorrec, the Head of the European Union Delegation to BiH; as well as ambassadors and representatives from countries that are part of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) Steering Board.

The focus of the meeting was the ongoing political crisis in BiH, which has been exacerbated by the actions of Milorad Dodik, the President of Republika Srpska (RS), and his supporters. Bećirović expressed concerns that these actions pose a significant threat to the foundations of the Dayton Peace Agreement and the country’s constitutional order, as reported by N1 BiH.

Commanders from EUFOR and NATO Headquarters in BiH were also in attendance at the meeting.

Recently, the RS Assembly enacted a law that prohibits the functioning of the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH, the Investigation and Protection Agency of BiH (SIPA), and the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of BiH (HJPC) within RS territory. Additionally, Dodik announced plans for a new RS Constitution aimed at “restoring the entity to its original Dayton status.”

The ruling coalition’s MPs went on to pass legislation establishing the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of the RS (HJPC), which will assume the powers of the HJPC of BiH. This includes defining the powers, conditions, and mandates for judicial and prosecutorial roles, along with the appointment and transfer of judges and public prosecutors.

A total of 49 MPs supported the laws, while three voted against. The voting session saw participation from 52 of the 83 MPs in the RS Parliament, with most opposition MPs choosing to boycott the proceedings.

The same count of votes was employed to approve amendments to the RS Criminal Code, which stipulate that RS officials who disregard decisions by BiH entities and institutions will face prosecution, punishable by imprisonment ranging from six months to five years, in addition to being barred from holding public office.

The RS Parliament further passed a law concerning the establishment of a Special Register for Non-Profit Organizations, which aims to bring transparency to those that financially or otherwise assist foreign entities, commonly referred to as the law on “Foreign Agents.”

The RS Assembly previously stated its refusal to accept a verdict from the Court of BiH that sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and imposed a six-year ban on him holding the office of the RS President for failing to comply with the decisions made by the High Representative in BiH.

During the parliamentary debate, Dodik asserted that “this is not secession” for RS; rather, it seeks to reclaim elements of autonomy purportedly stripped away by the Dayton Agreement. According to AP, he stated, “We have been preparing for this for years.”

Police officers in Banja Luka on February 26thphoto: Reuters

Schmidt and ambassadors from major powers in the PIC noted that the RS Assembly’s decision could jeopardize peace and security in BiH, urging for the law’s repeal.

“This action represents an attempt by the ruling coalition in RS to undermine institutions that fulfill constitutional responsibilities of the state in accordance with BiH laws, whose constitutionality has been validated by the Constitutional Court of BiH,” Schmidt stated.

As the chairman of the PIC Board — which includes ambassadors from the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, and Turkey — Schmidt highlighted that Russia has suspended its membership in the PIC since the onset of the Ukraine conflict.

Bećirović cautioned against aggressive efforts to dismantle BiH’s constitutional and legal framework, asserting that the rule of law is vital for a democratic society. He emphasized that no individual in BiH should be above the law.

“The judiciary is a fundamental pillar of every democratic state, and its independence and integrity must be protected. There are robust domestic and international mechanisms in place to safeguard BiH, peace, and security. Destabilizing the Dayton Peace Agreement could lead to unpredictable consequences for both the state and the region. The unilateral decisions from the RS National Assembly, driven by Milorad Dodik, are a threat to peace, security, and the integrity of BiH,” Bećirović remarked.

All participants at the meeting conveyed a united stance on the origins of the current crisis, underscoring the necessity for collective action among international actors to ensure adherence to both the Dayton Agreement and the Constitution of BiH. They acknowledged that the attacks by RS authorities on the constitutional order threaten not only peace and security but also inflict significant harm on all populations within BiH.

It was noted that the legislative actions taken by the RS National Assembly effectively hinder BiH’s progress toward full EU membership, as they contradict the European agenda.

Attendees reiterated their commitment to the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of BiH. They cautioned that they would not tolerate any breaches of the Dayton Peace Agreement and are prepared to undertake necessary measures to uphold the rule of law within BiH.

Bećirović reaffirmed that the international community holds a clear mandate and possesses mechanisms to combat anti-Dayton and anti-constitutional policies.

Citizens of BiH expect the international community to demonstrate resolve in defending the Dayton Peace Agreement and the legal framework of BiH. In this respect, it should be ready to deploy substantial military resources, especially at strategically critical locations. Threats aimed at BiH’s institutions and constitutional order could have grave repercussions for the Brčko District’s status. Special attention was drawn to comments made by Supervisor for Brčko, Luis Krišok, warning that jeopardizing BiH’s constitutional framework could lead to a reevaluation of the Final Arbitration Award for Brčko, as stated by the Cabinet of the Member of the Presidency of BiH.

Dodik’s supporters in Banja Lukaphoto: Reuters

The Prime Minister of the Federation, Nermin Nikšić (SDP), rejected Dodik’s request for talks regarding a purported return to the original Dayton framework.

“I am not willing to engage in any negotiations or form of political cooperation with RS institutions until all unconstitutional, anti-Dayton, and anti-state activities are halted and annulled,” Nikšić expressed in a written reply to Dodik and RS Prime Minister Radovan Višković, as reported by Sarajevo media.

He emphasized that this includes “the repeal and annulment of all unconstitutional measures put forth by the Government, as well as those ratified or set to be ratified by the RS National Assembly or other entities that challenge the authority of state institutions and the frameworks established by the General Framework Agreement for Peace in BiH.”

Nikšić clarified that discussions on matters within the jurisdiction of BiH should only occur in BiH state institutions or, if political issues concerning parliamentary majorities and state priorities arise, in a format involving presidents or representatives from parliamentary groups at the national level of BiH.

Bosniak Club Initiates Veto

The Bosniak Club within the Council of Peoples of the RS announced plans to initiate a protection measure for vital national interests regarding the laws passed by the RS Assembly.

All legislation enacted by the RS National Assembly must receive confirmation from the Council of Peoples of the RS, where delegates from the three constituent peoples (Serbs, Bosniaks, and Croats), along with “Others,” can invoke a veto or initiate a mechanism to shield vital national interests against the adopted laws and decisions of the entity parliament, as reported by the Beta agency.

If any group of delegates in the Council demands a veto, a reconciliation attempt will take place at a joint commission involving the Council of Peoples of the RS and the National Assembly. Should no agreement be reached, the Constitutional Court of the RS will issue a final ruling on whether vital national interests of any peoples in BiH have been infringed.

Only after these procedures can the President of the RS endorse a decree legitimizing laws accepted by the RS National Assembly, after which they will be published in the Official Gazette of the RS.

A separate procedure for contesting laws passed by the RS National Assembly can be initiated in the Constitutional Court of BiH; however, this requires adherence to the prescribed legislative processes in the RS institutions.

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