The showdown between Real Madrid and Manchester City in the second leg of the Champions League play-offs takes place tonight at Santiago Bernabeu at 21:00, highlighted by a statement from the English team’s coach. Pep Guardiola has given his team only a one percent chance of progressing.

City lost the first leg at home 3:2, but since the away goals rule no longer applies in UEFA competitions, any win by a single goal would lead to extra time, providing City a chance to advance.

However, Guardiola seems unconcerned; according to him, Real’s chances are 99 percent.

Clearly, the Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti has responded.

“Honestly, I doubt Guardiola believes what he said,” remarked the Italian.

– I’ll definitely ask him about it before the match starts – he joked.

The encounters between City and Real Madrid have become a tradition in the knockout stages of Europe’s elite competition. They have never clashed this early, and previously there was no two-legged round of 16 format.

Most of their past matches have been thrilling, with Real having won last year’s quarter-final second leg on penalties, and two seasons ago, they clinched the win in extra time with two goals in stoppage time, ultimately advancing to the final.

The only dramatic match was the 2023 semi-final, which City won with a 5-1 aggregate score.

The “Citizens” are not in the same form as when they secured their only European champion title, but they are certainly not solely reliant on a “one percent chance,” even though they start the second leg a goal down.

Ancelotti is aware of this and has enough experience to not fall for Guardiola’s tactics.

– He doesn’t believe they have a one percent chance of progressing, just as we don’t consider ourselves 99 percent favorites. We have a slight edge due to our performance in Manchester, and that’s it. We aim to leverage that advantage and move on – the Real Madrid coach emphasized.

Strangely enough, Real Madrid usually finds it challenging when they have an advantage before the second leg; they perform much better when playing “from behind”.

– It’s somewhat of a psychological challenge, as you need to learn how to manage having the upper hand. It’s not the easiest thing to navigate. I can state now that we will treat this as a 0-0 situation, as if the match is just beginning; I can instruct my players to adopt this mindset – and I will, but it’s easier said than done – said Ancelotti.

Real Madrid and Manchester City have faced each other 9 times in the Champions League over the last five years, and tonight marks their 10th encounter. Excluding penalties or extra time, the record stands at two wins for Real, three draws, and four victories for City.

Real Madrid fell from their top position in Spain over the weekend, now occupied by Barcelona, while City celebrated a resurgence following their 3:0 victory over Newcastle.

– Controlling the team’s attitude is what we can manage to some extent – we will attempt to replicate the same performance we had a week ago during our win, but one cannot ignore that we are currently ahead – Ancelotti added.

Omer Marmuš scored a hat-trick (his first goals in a City jersey) providing Guardiola with more options heading into tonight’s match. The defense’s strong showing, maintaining a clean sheet after a long while, also boosts confidence. Will this be enough for Guardiola’s team to achieve an upset and salvage their season? We’ll find out when the game kicks off…

– Certainly, the victory against Newcastle boosts us, but I still believe we have no more than a one percent chance. However, we will aim to seize that one percent – Guardiola remarked, whose team currently sits fourth in the Premier League, trailing leaders Liverpool by 16 points.

Tonight could also mark his farewell from the Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain is heavily favored against Brest following a 3-0 win in the first leg, a scenario where one team clearly has a 99 percent chance of advancing, and the other a mere one percent.

Juventus face a crucial test as they visit Eindhoven, defending a 2-1 lead from the first leg. Lastly, Borussia Dortmund also holds a significant advantage to progress, having triumphed 3-0 over Sporting Lisbon in the first leg, but they need to confirm their position at “Westfalen”.

Matchups

REAL MADRID – MANCHESTER CITY (first leg 3:2)

DORTMUND – SPORTING (3:0)

PSV – JUVENTUS (1:2)

PSG – BREST (3:0)

News