The laws and Constitution of Republika Srpska do not clearly define the procedure to be followed if a court bars the president from fulfilling their duties.

Furthermore, it remains ambiguous who would assume the responsibilities of the president in unforeseen circumstances within this administrative region of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

On February 26, the Court of BiH issued a first-instance ruling against Milorad Dodik, sentencing him to one year of imprisonment and a security measure prohibiting him from serving as President of Republika Srpska (RS) for a period of six years beginning from the moment the verdict is finalized.

Meanwhile, Miloš Lukić, the acting director of the Official Gazette of Republika Srpska, was acquitted of all charges.

This ruling can be appealed as it is a first-instance verdict.

Both Dodik and Lukić were charged with failing to respect the decisions made by the High Representative of the international community, Christian Schmidt.

“Should a conviction occur, it is likely that the Speaker of the RS National Assembly, Nenad Stevandić, would serve as the President of RS, although it would be more logical for one of the Vice Presidents to take that role,” stated Ćamil Duraković, Vice President of RS, in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty prior to the decision issued by the Court of BiH.

Duraković emphasized that “anyone opposing the regime cannot hold any position in this entity,” adding that “in the absence of regulations, decisions are dictated by the ruling majority.”

In June 2023, the Entity Assembly passed two laws concerning the non-implementation of judgments from the Constitutional Court of BiH and the non-implementation of decisions made by the High Representative.

On July 7, Dodik signed a decree promulgated by Lukić that validated these two laws, despite the fact that Schmidt had annulled the entire legislative process on July 1, invoking the Bonn powers.

What are the two vice presidents of RS doing?

Within Republika Srpska, there exists a president and two vice presidents, each representing different constituent nations (Bosniak, Croat, and Serb), who are directly elected from a joint list based on the votes received.

The president has the authority to propose laws, dismiss the entity’s prime minister, and dissolve parliament, whereas the vice presidents largely perform symbolic roles, supporting the RS president in tasks assigned to them.

In cases of “temporary incapacity,” the RS president decides which vice president will act on their behalf. For instance, during Milorad Dodik’s surgery in Belgrade last year, Vice President Davor Pranjić was appointed to handle his responsibilities temporarily.

What if the RS President is permanently incapacitated?

A crucial constitutional and political question arises regarding the succession plan in the event of a sudden, permanent incapacity, a final court verdict, removal from office, or the demise of the president or vice president.

The only established precedent dates back nearly two decades.

The unexpected death of RS President Milan Jelić on September 30, 2007, a member of Milorad Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), led to uncertainty concerning interim succession.

The Central Election Commission of BiH and the Office of the High Representative (OHR) were presented as the ultimate interpreters of the BiH Constitution, but a solution was not reached.

The National Assembly of Republika Srpska convened a special session on October 1, 2007.

Although there was no formal rule dictating the process, the Assembly resolved to appoint Igor Radojičić, the then-President of the Assembly and a member of the SNSD, as the acting entity president, with support from parties in power.

This decision generated controversy and raised questions regarding its legality and legitimacy.

Critics argued that the vice presidents should assume temporary duty, pointing out that Radojičić could not simultaneously fulfill legislative and executive roles, although electoral laws do not explicitly prohibit this.

Radojičić served as the acting RS president until December 9, 2007, when Rajko Kuzmanović, also part of the SNSD, won the subsequent elections as the new RS president.

Who would replace Dodik as RS President?

If the RS National Assembly majority were to emulate the 2007 scenario and appoint a ruling party member as the acting president, it would likely be Nenad Stevandić, Dodik’s coalition partner.

Stevandić, leader of United Srpska, was added to the US “blacklist” on July 30, 2023, for actions undermining the Dayton Peace Agreement and jeopardizing the integrity of BiH, alongside several other RS officials.

The US imposed sanctions on them following the RS parliament’s passing of laws that bypassed decisions from the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as from the international community’s High Representative (OHR).

President Milorad Dodik and Acting Director of the RS Official Gazette Miloš Lukić were indicted for endorsing and publishing these laws, despite the High Representative, Christian Schmidt, having previously suspended the legislative process.

Dodik and his family have previously been listed on the US “blacklist,” along with companies alleged to have connections to them.

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