In what was one of the more disappointing matches of the season for Liverpool, they still managed to secure a significant victory in the latest “Merseyside derby” at Goodison, leading for most of the game until the 98th minute and establishing a solid nine-point lead over Arsenal at the top of the table.

However, James Tarkowski, the Everton defender, scored a late equalizer that sent the ball into Alisson Becker’s net, ending the contest at 2-2 and leaving Liverpool with a seven-point advantage over second-place Arsenal.

With 24 rounds of the Premier League concluded and 14 matches remaining, it appears that Everton might have introduced some unpredictability into the championship race. Nonetheless, historical trends suggest otherwise…

The BBC has indicated that the largest point gap a team has overcome after every team has played 24 matches is five points—no team has ever reclaimed a title from a seven-point deficit as Liverpool currently holds.

Historically, only two teams have overturned a five-point deficit after 24 matches: Manchester United in 2003, when they surpassed their long-time rivals Arsenal, and Manchester City six years ago, who managed to take advantage of Liverpool’s missteps under Jurgen Klopp and ultimately clinched the title by a single point.

There have been instances where teams have trailed by nine points after 24 rounds, but only when the teams behind had one or two games in hand. This was true for Manchester United in 1996 and Arsenal in 1998.

What does the supercomputer predict?

In previous years, there weren’t supercomputers to analyze title chances, but today, predictions indicate no significant dramas are expected as the season progresses.

According to Optima’s supercomputer, Liverpool boasts an 88.3 percent probability of capturing their 20th Premier League title by season’s end, while Arsenal, sitting in second, has only an 11.6 percent chance.

Nottingham Forest trails in third, a daunting 10 points behind Liverpool (no team has ever closed such a gap), with a meager 0.1 percent chance of winning the championship this season. Both fourth-place Chelsea (14 points behind) and reigning champions Manchester City (16 points behind) are considered to have no viable chances for the title.

Upcoming Matches

For Liverpool, it appears that the most challenging stretch of the season is upcoming. If Arne Slot’s squad can successfully navigate the next four matches within ten days, they may well secure the title.

The Reds will host Wolverhampton on Sunday, travel to Aston Villa three days later, face last year’s champions Manchester City the next weekend, and then welcome Newcastle on February 26th.

Conversely, Arsenal’s series of tough matches begins on the 26th when they visit Nottingham Forest, followed by a crucial clash with Manchester United. This will be followed by match-ups against Chelsea, Fulham, and Everton in Liverpool.

If Liverpool doesn’t solidify their advantage by May 10th, a potentially decisive encounter between Liverpool and Arsenal might take place at Enfidha with only three rounds remaining in the season.

Liverpool’s remaining fixtures: Wolverhampton (H), Aston Villa (A), Manchester City (A), Newcastle (H), Southampton (H), Everton (A), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Leicester (H), Tottenham (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Brighton (H), Crystal Palace (A).

Arsenal’s remaining fixtures: Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Manchester United (H), Chelsea (A), Fulham (H), Everton (A), Brentford (A), Ipswich (H), Crystal Palace (H), Bournemouth (A), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (H), Southampton (A).

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