The options currently on the table for Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska, include a referendum regarding the secession of the entity, the elimination of the jurisdiction of the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina within its territory, and the withdrawal from state institutions.

If the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina finds him guilty of undermining the decisions made by the High Representative, these options may need to be considered.

Alongside Dodik, Miloš Lukić, the acting director of the Official Gazette of the RS, is also facing trial.

Should they be convicted, they could each receive a prison sentence of up to five years, be removed from their positions, and be barred from holding public office.

The closing statements in the trial for Dodik and Lukic are scheduled for February 19, after which the trial chamber will have three days to deliver a ruling, although they can request an extension of this period.

During a meeting in Banja Luka on the evening of February 17, Dodik, along with his political allies and coalition partners, asserted that RS was “prepared to make drastic decisions” in the event of a conviction.

After the meeting, it was indicated that all representatives from RS within BiH institutions would cease their work should a guilty verdict be rendered.

Furthermore, an initiative was proposed for the National Assembly of the RS to be in “permanent session,” reflective of the current socio-political climate.

The RS Constitution mandates that this legislative assembly operates in a permanent session, with the President of the Parliament calling for gatherings.

On February 19, coinciding with the closing arguments, the RS Government will convene a meeting with all mayors in the RS before conducting a session.

Withdrawal from State Institutions

The cessation of operations within state institutions represents the most concrete action anticipated from the RS government.

It was declared after the February 17 meeting in Banja Luka that “All representatives of the Serbian constituent people and Republika Srpska at the level of BiH, along with all staff members in BiH institutions, will retract from the institutions and halt their work.”

The ruling coalition in RS, led by Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), has frequently threatened to withdraw from BiH institutions should certain state-level decisions not align with their interests.

There are no penalties for failing to attend state body sessions, and given the dynamics of entity and ethnic majorities, this could potentially obstruct all state processes.

In July 2021, RS representatives withdrew from the Parliament, Council of Ministers, and Presidency of BiH, reacting to then-High Representative Valentin Inzko’s imposition of amendments to the state Criminal Code prohibiting genocide denial and the glorification of war criminals.

This governmental blockade was lifted approximately six months later, on February 1, 2022, when the parliament of the entity adopted a resolution permitting elected officials from RS to participate in sessions within BiH institutions while requiring them to “adhere to the positions and decisions of their respective institutions” during deliberations.

The last instance in which RS politicians threatened to withdraw from state institutions occurred in September 2023, citing “Kristijan Šmit’s provocations” as the reason.

At that time, Schmidt was expected to meet with the vice presidents of the RS, Ćamil Duraković and Davor Pranjić, at the Palace of the President of the RS, where Dodik’s office is situated, but this meeting did not take place.

The RS authorities contend that Schmidt, the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, lacks legitimacy due to not being “elected by the United Nations Security Council.”

Referendum on Secession

Dodik remarked in early January that, contingent on a verdict, a referendum on the independence of RS would be proposed.

“If such a decision is rendered, irrespective of public opinion, there will promptly be a parliamentary resolution regarding the secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina and a referendum for the independence of Republika Srpska,” Dodik stated in an interview with Radio Television RS.

Referendums are integrated into the entity’s constitution and the Law on Referendum and Citizens’ Initiative in Republika Srpska. They can be organized at both local and entity levels for issues within the jurisdiction of the National Assembly of the RS.

However, RS is barred from initiating a referendum on state issues according to both entity and state constitutions. Any referendum question must align with the Constitution of BiH.

The Constitution of BiH, which serves as the primary legal document of the country, does not reference this mode of decision-making.

Any attempt at secession is also viewed as a blatant breach of the Dayton Peace Agreement, as well as the Constitution of BiH, which is integral to it.

Dodik has consistently threatened to pursue secession and has been working toward a unilateral “return” of authority from the state level back to the entity level. Last year, the U.S. intelligence community cautioned that he was “engaging in provocative actions” intended to “establish de facto secession for RS.”

In January, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Siniša Karan, the Minister of Interior of the RS, and Dalibor Panić, the Secretary General of the entity government, due to their involvement in a working group focused on RS’s potential secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Dodik also mentioned plans for referendums on various topics.

The only referendum held in RS occurred in September 2016, when citizens voted on whether to continue celebrating January 9 as RS Day, a holiday that the Constitutional Court of BiH has declared unconstitutional on three occasions.

Despite nearly unanimous support from voters, the Constitutional Court initially prohibited the referendum and later annulled its results in December of that year.

Abolition of the Jurisdiction of the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH

Another option posited by RS authorities is the annulment of the jurisdiction of the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina within the territory of Republika Srpska, which has been deemed “unconstitutional” by these authorities for over 15 years.

Dodik articulated this stance in an interview on “Face” television on January 26.

The Laws governing the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH were ratified by the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH in 2002 and 2003, respectively, with votes from representatives, including those from RS.

While the Constitution of BiH does not formally enumerate the judiciary as a state competency, it does provide for BiH to assume “competence in matters where entities agree,” thus permitting the establishment of additional institutions.

Part of BiH’s constitutional responsibilities includes “the enforcement of international and inter-entity criminal law regulations.”

The last attempt to abolish the jurisdiction of state institutions by RS authorities occurred in 2023 when the RS National Assembly passed laws rejecting decisions from the Constitutional Court of BiH and the High Representative regarding the entity’s territory.

Shortly afterwards, the High Representative in BiH, Kristijan Šmit, nullified these laws and categorized non-compliance with OHR decisions as a criminal offense.

Dodik is currently facing trial for later endorsing a decree that enacted those two unconstitutional laws.

As Prime Minister of RS back in 2009, Dodik demanded the termination of the State Court and Prosecutor’s Office as a condition for negotiations on constitutional reform.

In the following years, RS authorities periodically sought to abolish, or at least limit, the jurisdiction of these institutions within their territory.

In April 2023, representatives from the ruling parties in RS signed a plan detailing their representatives’ activities within BiH institutions, which specified that the entity Parliament would “abolish the jurisdiction of the Court and Prosecutor’s Office of BiH within the RS as unconstitutional and illegal entities of BiH.” However, this has not yet been accomplished.

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