The European Union and the United States have not yet taken a stand against the unstable regime of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, but analysts and media within the EU are raising questions about the potential end of his leadership.

European media and political analysts concur that Vučić’s administration is facing turmoil, a sentiment evidenced by the resignation of Prime Minister Miloš Vučević, who acknowledged that violence directed at students was perpetrated by “thugs” affiliated with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

They further argue that whether through a restructured government or by calling elections, Vučić will merely attempt to implement superficial changes while maintaining his stronghold on power.

An analyst from the European Council on Foreign Relations, Enđelusa Morina, asserts that the recent student demonstrations and broader public dissent signal the beginning of the end for Vučić’s regime, albeit a process that may unfold over time.

Morina emphasizes that significant reforms are essential due to widespread public discontent stemming from legal violations, the stifling of governmental institutions, media censorship, and rampant corruption within the administration.

She also highlights that Vučić’s leadership has been compromised, noting that he fails to engage with citizens constructively, instead communicating solely with his SNS supporters, ignoring the broader discontent regarding law enforcement and corruption issues.

The German publication Süddeutsche Zeitung reflects that Vučić is not on the brink of collapse, as he controls a party apparatus that manages all major companies and institutions, often trading job security for votes within his camp.

Moreover, it is pointed out that Vučić is not under the protective watch of Brussels and Berlin solely due to the lithium mining project, but also because he supports the Serbian military industry in producing arms for Ukraine.

The newspaper additionally remarks that many regime-owned media outlets and tabloids play a significant role in obstructing the emergence of viable political alternatives.

The German public broadcaster MDR notes that the student protests in Serbia emerged independently, without any logistical or financial backing from Western entities, which have historically supported democratic movements during the “color revolutions” in other post-communist countries.

Furthermore, it asserts that these protests have taken place despite the longstanding positions of the EU, USA, and even Germany, which have effectively backed Vučić’s authoritarian governance for the past decade, thereby facilitating the erosion of Serbian democracy.

French publication Lezeko mentions that the Serbian government has been ” shaken by weeks of protests against incompetence and corruption,” highlighting the resignation of Prime Minister Miloš Vučević, who has been a close ally of President Aleksandar Vučić throughout his 11-year reign.

Meanwhile, the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation indicates that the European Union has thus far “tolerated Aleksandar Vučić due to his assurance of stability and access to resources like lithium,” acknowledging that the Serbian populace is well aware of this dynamic.

Regarding EU candidacy, Serbia is still viewed as a prospective member; however, the EU could address rule of law violations similarly to issues within its own borders, including potential financial penalties. The lack of any critique from the EU, even during instances of flagrant electoral fraud, has repeatedly left Serbian civil society feeling abandoned,” states the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.

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